Modelling Studies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and Emission Intensity of Indian Economy
The Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change (MoEF &CC) invited three think tanks, one of which is IRADe to answer key questions through different approaches to address the issues relating to climate negotiations. IRADe attempts to estimate the GHG emission intensity of the Indian economy up to 2050 through macro-economic growth model. The project involves focus on key economic sectors such as energy including (electricity), transport, buildings, industries, agriculture, land use and land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and wastes among others. Further, the project also includes assessment of implications of various developmental pathways, structural shifts or technological changes on national Greenhouse Gas Emission (GHG) trajectories in the time frames 2020-2030, 2030-2040 and 2040-2050.
The project also requires the analysis of ongoing and planned policies with assessment of their impact on the GHG emission intensity of Indian economy, including the cost/economic implications thereof.
To achieve the project objectives, IRADe is upgrading its activity analysis model (IRADe AA 2030)up to 2050. The IRADe AA 2030 is a dynamic multi-sectoral, inter-temporal, linear programming activity analysis model based on an input–output framework. There are five major sectors that account for production activities in the model that includes agriculture, primary energy, industry, power, and services and their 38 sub sectors.
The model incorporates intervention in these areas to achieve low carbon pathways. Further, the household consumption is the final sector and accounts for final consumption in the economy. The growth rate of household consumption and its composition over time is what drives the economy. The model projects the changing demand structure of the economy over a period of 50 years in a dynamic manner using a combination of log normal population distribution and expenditure class specific linear expenditure systems which are consistent along classes as they reflect an underlying non-linear demand system.
The outputs from the model include the following:
- Sectoral outputs of investments in 38 production activities.
- Commodity-wise household consumption, government consumption, investment, intermediate demand, exports and imports.
- Total investment demand, foreign investment flow.
- Class wise total and commodity wise consumption expenditure, population in both rural and urban areas.
- Poverty at each time period in rural and urban areas.
- Emissions from each production activity.
- Emissions by households from consumption of fossil fuels.